Reviewed by Gotrade Internal Analyst
Gotrade News - The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3% as an AI investment boom helps offset trade headwinds and easing US tariff pressure. The update points to a more resilient baseline, even as valuation and policy risks remain in play.
Key Takeaways:
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The IMF now sees global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and describes the outlook as resilient.
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The AI capex boom may lift productivity, but it can also fuel inflation or a valuation reset if expectations fall short.
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Global inflation is projected to keep cooling, which could leave room for more supportive monetary policy.
Read also: Renewable Energy Stocks Gain Attention as Dividends Stand Out in 2026
Reuters and Qatar News Agency reported the IMF lifted its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from October. The IMF also kept 2025 growth at 3.3% and sees 2027 growth at 3.2%.
What’s behind the IMF upgrade
A key driver is how businesses have adjusted to US tariffs that have eased in recent months. Supply chains have become more flexible, while China has redirected more exports toward non-US markets.
The IMF now assumes an effective US tariff rate of 18.5%, down from roughly 25% in its April 2025 forecast. That shift reduces pressure on trade flows and import costs.
At the same time, AI investment is being treated as a new growth engine, spanning data centres, high-end AI chips, and power infrastructure. The IMF raised its 2026 US growth forecast to 2.4% and nudged its 2027 view down to 2.0%.
Elsewhere, tech investment and fiscal support are lifting parts of Europe. Spain’s 2026 growth forecast was raised to 2.3%, while the UK’s 2026 forecast was kept at 1.3%.
China is projected to grow 4.5% in 2026 after a stronger-than-expected 5.0% in 2025, but the 2026 figure is higher than the IMF’s October estimate. The IMF also points to a temporary reduction in US tariff rates on Chinese goods and continued export diversion to Southeast Asia and Europe.
The euro zone is projected to grow 1.3% in 2026, supported by higher public spending in Germany and stronger performances in Spain and Ireland. The 2027 forecast was kept at 1.4%, with defence spending expected to show up more meaningfully later.
AI upside, but policy risks still matter
The IMF flagged that a fast AI boom could add to inflation pressure if investment keeps running hot. Another risk is a correction in high market valuations if promised productivity gains and profits do not materialise.
Trade policy uncertainty also remains a live variable. A US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s broad tariffs could add uncertainty if a new tariff path is pursued under different laws.
On prices, the IMF expects global inflation to fall from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. If that trend holds, more accommodative monetary policy could help underpin growth.
For investors, the message is that the global economy looks steady, but the market narrative will hinge on two things: realised AI productivity gains and the direction of trade policy. Those drivers can shape valuations, the cost of capital, and risk appetite through 2026.
Read also: Trump Presses Greenland Again as Europe Weighs Tariff Response
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Reference:
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Reuters, IMF sees steady global growth in 2026 as AI boom offsets trade headwinds. Diakses pada 20 Januari 2026
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Qatar News Agency, IMF Raises Global Economic Growth Forecast for 2026 Amid Global Economic Turnaround. Diakses pada 20 Januari 2026
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